Year of the Rabbit annual monetary policy interest rates four conjecture 2 to 3 times

 Yesterday, the central bank announced interest rate increase, which opened the Year of the Rabbit monetary policy adjustments of the big screen. With the In spring best wins

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guess

the size of credit throughout the year is still over 7 trillion

It is understood that, in accordance with past practice, the annual early January, the annual target of credit had been set. And as of now, the central bank is expected to launch in 2011 has not disclosed the total credit. Analysts believe that the target will play down to the central bank credit to financial institutions in the monetary and credit control more targeted.

experts said the central bank played down the credit management indicators, and proposed the implementation of differentiated reserve rate system, the credit market last year to avoid reasonable credit institutions, credit blind impulse to suppress the effect of running better.

central bank data released in 2010, new loans reached 7.95 trillion yuan, exceeding 7.5 trillion yuan in early development of the credit scale, more than 4,000 billion yuan. Although the total of new loans this year, the plate has not yet conclusive, but the market generally expected 70,000 -7.5 trillion yuan.

First Capital Securities analyst Zhengzhen Yuan said that as at October 2010, the number of new projects in 2010 than in 2009, only 280,000 the same period decreased by 1.3 million, these projects if the Government did not allow bad the determination of the end, the project demand for credit will remain very strong, the size of credit in 2011 will not be less than 7 trillion yuan.

conjecture II

annual interest rate 2-3 times

be placed in the general price level stability in macroeconomic regulation this year is more prominent and visible location. Before the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview, the central bank must remain vigilant on inflation, domestic inflation still exists room for further gains. Therefore, the price trends in 2011 will determine the number and frequency of interest rate increases.

present, most economists believe that CPI will exceed 4% in 2011, the annual interest rate 2-3 times.

JPMorgan chief China economist Wang Qian believes that 2011 will be twice raised the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates three times, and allow the yuan to appreciate further in response to inflationary pressures and continued strong domestic demand rebound. Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank are also expected to raise interest rates this year by 75 basis points.

chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, said Jian-Fang Zhu, CPI this year will show a trend from high to low and high points in the first half, a quarter of the CPI may reach about 4.6%, with the second half of the government's effective anti-inflation policy, CPI will gradually downstream, the central bank will raise interest rates this year, 2-3 times.

Central University of Finance and the China Banking Research Center, Guo Tian Yong says inflation will be the core of economic policy during the first half, the central bank to raise interest rates during the Spring Festival in April and May after the expected rate hike is still possible.

Lu, senior economist at Industrial Bank, political commissar of the view that interest rates throughout the year there will be five times, three of which were to raise interest rates in the first half, third and fourth quarters of the rate hike. He told reporters that strong economic growth, in January a new high in the CPI and the policy department's attention on price stability, the central bank raise interest rates again in February triggers.


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